The coronavirus outbreak that has taken the world by a storm with casualties and fresh cases being reported daily has also raised concerns on the impact this epidemic will have on economies around the world. Even though Pakistan remains among the least affected countries by the coronavirus outbreak, the effect on its economy due to this epidemic may be severe, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has warned.
As per ADB, Pakistan’s economy may suffer a loss of up to $5 billion in the worst-case scenario of the coronavirus outbreak.
In the “best-case scenario”, the loss would be $16.23 million, of which Pakistan’s agriculture and mining sectors could sustain a loss of $5.5 million, business trade, personal and public service a loss of $5.54 million, hotels and restaurants a loss of $0.67 million, light and heavy manufacturing a loss of $3.6 million, and transport services incur a loss of $0.92 million.
In the moderate-case scenario, the projected loss that Pakistan may suffer is estimated to be $34.2 million
In the worst-case scenario, ADB estimates Pakistan to suffer a loss of $5 billion, of which $1.5 billion loss will be incurred in the agriculture and mining sector, $1.94 billion in business and trade, $253.7 million in hotel and restaurants, $671 million in light and heavy engineering, and $565.6 million loss in transport services.
The report also highlights that this loss would plunge Pakistan’s GDP by at least 1.57 per cent and trigger 9,46,000 job losses.
According to the World Health Organisation, as on March 6, Pakistan had reported five confirmed coronavirus cases, while the global number stood at 98,192 confirmed cases and 3,380 deaths.