Home Army Technology Emerging Technologies as potential Risks to Arms control in South Asia – Modern Diplomacy

Emerging Technologies as potential Risks to Arms control in South Asia – Modern Diplomacy

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The relationship between Nations in south Asia  create a classic military security dilemma involving the proliferation of military technologies, the arms race and the intervention of national policies in defense . Scholars and Military experts say that the Emerging technologies are tend to generate Technological Revolution in  Strategic affairs. Emerging technologies have the potentiality of altering  the Balance of power among Great and regional powers.These havepushed military planners toreview defence planning and countermeasures.These technologies have given Articulated run posture in the form of Arm Race where powers portfolio  would turned to be Drivers for the complexity of International peace and security .

The conventional, missile and nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan increases insecurity in the subcontinent and poses a serious threat to strategic stability in South Asia. Pakistan is seriously engaged in a comprehensive dialogue to replace enmity with enmity, yet both sides remain committed to their policies of strategic competition and the enduring priority of military security.  Military security is primarily about the interaction between states  actual armed offensive and defense capabilities on the one hand, and their perceptions of each other’s capabilities and intentions on the other. Currently India has massive advantage in obtaining real time intelligence, Surveillance and reconnaissance therefore equal advantage in space based Military capabilities.Pakistan is alsoEffectively working on real time ISR capabilities, which could enhance the  command for both Army and Air force.Historically, before the fall of USSR; both the super powers competed for technological edge over each other for dominance. With the passage of time Coldwar remained cold but it had even more psychological ramifications on other countries Like Pakistan and India. Still these countries are working to build technological marvels which left US and USSR nothing but indulge in unendinggame of deterrence and pave the way for mutually assured destruction( MAD) and psychological superiority over each other.

Turning towards South Asia India and Pakistan are in the race of forming disparity over conventional and nuclear capabilities. The driving factors are definitely to give rise to the Race of Armament and superiority over each other. Some of the substantial technologies such as Hypersonic Missile, Supersonic weapons, Artificial Intelligence, Anti-Ballistic missile system, unmanned weapons,Cyber warfare and Tactical nuclear weapons.However  India has tested an indigenously built hypersonic weapon that will serve as the basis for a nuclear capable cruise missile, according to officials involved with the launch. These proponents of hyper cruise missiles which India is pursuing they have advantages over ballistic missile. This test which was conducted in the Dr Abdul Kalam island in the Bay of Bengal, similarly this Met all parameters of technical aspects.According to DRDO (Defenceresearch and development organisation) chief G SatheeshReddy, this has pave way for more advanced Hypersonic System.

Secondly,amid the ongoing tensions with China,India is all set to showcase the massive firepower of Brahmossupersonic cruise missile as three defense forces would carry out multiple firings within the Indian ocean region. This supersonic missile named as Brahmosis the worlds fastest operational system in its class and range. Recently DRDO has extended the range of this missile from the existing 298KM to around 450 Km. Pakistan’s Director General of Munitions Production (DGMP) has shed some light on development of a supersonic missile for Pakistan Navy, this Disclosure was proceeded accordingly participation of MODP in 2017- 2018.

Thirdly,autonomous Weapon system, a system that once activated can select and engage targets without further intervention by a human operator. Thedeployment of fully autonomous weapons system poses numerous challenges to International security and Arms control by Initiating with a potential insuperable threat to the laws of war and International Humanitarian Law. These are killer  Robots which can be ethically challenged view and machines in  replacing humans in taking critical tactical decisions and  Owing to responsibilities for a misfire would be the main hurdle in deployment and this could have the solidifying of commissioning of Artificial Intelligence shows the generic source of variabilities of techniques for investing machines with an ability to monitor their surroundings in physical world or cyberspace this could lead to take independent actions in response to various stimuli. Further to over  invest these  machines with certain  capacities, engineers have developed complex algorithms or computer based sets of rules to govern their operations .

India ‘s Strategy  known as “ AI for all” focuses on the responsible build of Artificial intelligence solutions at scale to which can drives the intentions to make India the AI garage of the world, this probably meant to be a trusted nation to which the world can outsource AI related Work, meanwhile AI solutions built in India will serve the world.

Risks to Arms control due to Emerging technology tackling the arms control implication with in the southAsia by developing these Technologies. This is now becoming a matter of ever increasing urgency as the pace of their development is getting speed and their potential applications to warfare are multiplying. Major risks of these acquisition of weapons technologies by India and Pakistan is Risking arms control in South Asia region. Major Risks are like Technological asymmetry, Erosion of concept of deterrence, threats to laws of War and international humanitarian law, most importantly arms race  and strategic instability in region. First technological asymmetry like investments in AI, Hypersonic weapons could creates tensions for both India and Pakistan. Pakistan is trying its best to cope up but is lacking behind owing to the economic conditions.On the other hand space has become geostrategic contested domain. India recently demonstrated that anti space prowess by destroying one of its satellites highlighting that space power is shifting from west to East. This technological asymmetry between Pakistan and India is bringing a shift in the Balance of power and Instability in South Asia. Erosion of Concept of deterrence with new technologies could undermine nuclear second Strike capabilities,  the basis of deterrence and strategic stability . Further this could threat towards the laws of war and international Humanitarian law .

The current state of nuclear affairs in South Asia leaves much to be desired.  In fact, the challenges that have been posed before can only be met if the participants concerned share a common sense of sanity over the dangers posed by nuclear weapons and the urgent need to prolong the fuse of a common crisis.  It is with this hope that such a day will dawn, sooner rather than later, some suggestions,  made below are vital in this regard.  This is to increase confidence by facilitating conceptual explanations, from mutual initiatives to more specific proposals on the weapons system.  Each recommendation either first strike instability, arms race instability. they  can  work to avoid theexacerbation ofpolitical conflicts by enhancing predictability, transparency, and constraint.  Nuclear  learning  in  South  Asia this will  improve  if  both sides develop an  understanding  or mutually agreed upon proscription or limitation on acquisition, deployment,  or use  of  some  weapon system. Pakistan is trying to balance terrorism with India.  In terms of strategic balance, it is not far behind in the South Asian arms race.  Admittedly, in the conventional arms race, it cannot afford to maintain or maintain harmony with India due to its economic and demographic barrier.

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